A key measure of the United States’ manufacturing health has recorded its best monthly performance since August 2022. Analysts in the cryptocurrency sector suggest this could foreshadow good news for Bitcoin, which is currently priced at $78,000.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) recently reported a score of 52.6 for January. This result exceeded market expectations, which were around 48.5, ending a streak of 26 months of declining manufacturing activity in the U.S.
Scores above 50 indicate economic expansion, while those below signify contraction. The last time the PMI exceeded 52.6 was in August 2022. According to analysts, the upward trend in the PMI might indicate a turning point for Bitcoin after its recent drop to a ten-month low of $75,442 on Monday.
Data shows that changes in the manufacturing index from mid-2020 to 2023 have closely followed Bitcoin’s price fluctuations. Joe Burnett, Vice President of Bitcoin strategy at Strive, noted, “Historically, these PMI reversals mark the shift to risk-on conditions,” emphasizing similar past rallies of Bitcoin following upticks in the manufacturing index in 2013, 2016, and 2020.
Another Bitcoin analyst, known as Plan C, remarked,
“If you don’t upgrade your understanding of the Bitcoin cycle from the 4-year halving mirage mindset to a business cycle / macro mindset fast… You will miss the boat completely on the second massive leg of this Bitcoin bull market!”
On a different note, Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse, pointed out that Bitcoin’s correlation with the manufacturing index isn’t always consistent, stating, “Bitcoin is not the economy.”
The ISM Manufacturing PMI went through fluctuations last year, while Bitcoin rose towards its peak of $126,080.
As for predictions regarding Bitcoin’s 2026 performance, opinions among institutional investors vary widely. A recent report by crypto venture capital firm Dragonfly suggested Bitcoin could trade above $150,000 by the end of 2026. Conversely, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee predicted further declines before a later resurgence. Galaxy Digital declined to offer a specific prediction, suggesting that 2026 could be too unpredictable, with Bitcoin’s price possibly ranging from $50,000 to $250,000.
