Bitwise Asset Management’s Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan, claims that the cryptocurrency market has been experiencing a “crypto winter” since January 2025. The executive believes that indicators suggest this downturn could be ending rather than just beginning.

Good News Fails to Lift Prices

In a recent message titled “The Depths of Crypto Winter,” Hougan clarified that despite positive advances in areas such as adoption, regulatory frameworks, and institutional engagement, the market is still entrenched in a substantial bear market.

He added that Bitcoin has dropped nearly 39% from its peak in October 2025, and Ethereum has fallen by 53%. Many other cryptocurrencies have suffered even more substantial losses, marking this period as a protracted bear market akin to previous crypto winters experienced in 2018 and 2022. Contributing factors include excessive leverage and widespread profit-taking by long-term holders.

Even with positive developments, such as the appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, who is supportive of Bitcoin, and increased institutional hiring within the crypto sector, the overall investor sentiment remains cautious. Hougan stated, “Good news doesn’t matter in the depths of winter,” asserting that severe market conditions often conclude through exhaustion rather than excitement.

Moreover, Hougan pointed out that institutional investments have significantly obscured the true effects of the 2025 downturn, citing the Bitwise 10 Large Cap Crypto Index. It revealed that while Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP experienced smaller declines ranging from 10% to 20% thanks to support from ETFs and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs), other cryptocurrencies like Solana, Litecoin, and Chainlink saw declines of 37% to 46%. Additionally, assets like Cardano, Avalanche, Sui, and Polkadot faced losses of 62% to 75%.

Potential Recovery on the Horizon

Despite the market’s struggles, Hougan opined that several markers could indicate the conclusion of the current crypto winter, expressing, “I think we’re going to come roaring back sooner rather than later. Heck, it’s been winter since January 2025. Spring is surely coming soon.”

Bitcoin’s Global Ranking Declines

Currently, the gravity of the downturn is also showcased by Bitcoin’s diminishing global asset ranking. Reports indicate that Bitcoin has fallen from the top ten by market capitalization, now sitting at 13th place with an estimated market cap of $1.56 trillion, declining from about $2.35 trillion in July 2025.