Bitcoin (BTC) rallied to $69,482 on Friday, coinciding with data suggesting small holders have been accumulating steadily since February.
Key Points:
- BTC surpassed the $69,000 resistance, triggering $92 million in short liquidations within four hours.
- Small wallets increased their holdings by $613 million throughout February, while larger whale wallets experienced a $4.5 billion outflow.
- The profit ratio for short-term holders has hit a level not seen since November 2022, signaling weak market sentiment.
Will the Bitcoin Rally Sustain?
Bitcoin is navigating beyond the top of its descending channel while retesting the $69,000 mark. This movement signifies a potential bullish break of structure (BOS) if BTC remains above $68,000. If it secures this level, key liquidity zones could be approaching around $71,500 and $74,000. The exponential moving averages are constricting beneath the current price, indicating potential momentum continuation.
The price surge triggered around $96 million in futures liquidations within the last four hours, primarily stemming from short positions, hinting at a possible short squeeze against bearish traders.
BTC liquidations were concentrated on exchanges like Bybit (22.5%), Hyperliquid (22%), and Gate (15%), which indicates a major share of active leveraged trading in the market.
Retail Investor Demand Fuels Momentum
This breakout is buoyed by consistent buying from smaller investors. Order flow data from Hyblock indicates that small wallets, holding between $0–$10,000, accumulated approximately $613 million in cumulative volume delta (CVD) over February, continuously bidding during dips.
The mid-tier wallets have reported a change of about -$216 million for the month, signifying selective purchases during downturns since BTC dropped below $60,000.
Whale accounts, with balances exceeding $100,000, recently hit a CVD low of about -$5.8 billion earlier in February, managing to stabilize thereafter, although a definitive accumulation trend from larger holders has yet to materialize.
For the rally to persevere, renewed whale investments are essential and the short-term holder spent output profit ratio (SOPR) might need to exceed 1, indicating that recent purchasers are refraining from selling at loss.
Notably, the SOPR for short-term holders recently fell to its lowest since November 2022, suggesting that many of the recent buyers have accepted losses, reflecting fragile confidence even with the current rebound.
