A specific group of Bitcoin (BTC) holders engaging in strict self-custody are facing unrealized losses amounting to $27.89 billion. This loss parallels the downturn in the institutional market, where ETF exposure has decreased dramatically, plunging by two-thirds since late 2024.

The data indicates that the pressures affecting Bitcoin are not solely confined to Wall Street but are impacting long-term holders using cold storage as well.

ETFs and On-Chain Holders in Red

A comprehensive on-chain analysis by GugaOnChain reveals that addresses holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC with a UTXO age of 1 to 3 months are experiencing a drawdown of -23.39%, translating into nearly $28 billion in paper losses. This segment of Bitcoin holders, who prefer hard wallets over centralized exchanges, find themselves in a similar position as institutional traders dealing in CME futures and ETFs. According to GugaOnChain, this collective stress underscores the idea that the market is collectively battling a significant downturn, regardless of the trading environment.

Unfortunately, the macroeconomic landscape does not indicate an impending recovery. While key support pillars such as accumulators (demand of 371,900 BTC), retail investors (adding 6,384 BTC monthly), and miners (with an MPI of -1.11) have helped prevent an immediate crash, analysts only see these factors as temporary delays.

At present, Bitcoin’s price is fluctuating around $67,000, experiencing a slight decrease of 1% in the last 24 hours, yet showing marginal gains for the week. The overarching trend remains troubling, with prices down about 27% over the last month and approximately 42% over the past six months, as reported by CoinGlass.

“The recovery? It depends on price reaction at the levels above.” — GugaOnChain

Divergence in Market Behavior

Despite overarching losses, market behavior is increasingly divergent, complicating future predictions. Retail demand from short-term holders appears to be significantly waning, with Alphractal data showing a rapid drop in the 90-day net position change for this group. On the other hand, whale investors seem to be seizing the opportunity presented by the price dip, with their holdings rising by an estimated 200,000 BTC in the past month, from 2.9 million to over 3.1 million BTC. This level of stockpiling echoes behavior observed during the April 2025 correction, just before Bitcoin surged from $76,000 to over $126,000. This indicates that while less informed investors may succumb to panic, knowledgeable investors appear to be positioning themselves for long-term gains.