Ripple has seen significant volatility recently, especially after the US presidential elections in 2024. It surged from $0.60 to over $3.60 but then fell drastically to $1.11 in early October 2025.

According to analytics firm Santiment, this sharp 70% decline coincides with the largest on-chain realized loss spike since 2022, a potential indicator for investors. The analyst reported that the last similar scenario resulted in a stunning 114% price increase within eight months. If history was to repeat itself, XRP’s value could soar past $3.00.

“Significant realized losses take place when numerous investors liquidate their holdings for less than their acquisition cost. Typically, this aligns with rising fear levels. When sellers panic and capitulate, they lock in losses instead of enduring for a rebound,” the firm explained.

While the current situation may seem negative in the short-term, it could signal a stronger price trajectory over the long run. Once weaker holders sell their assets, the remaining sellers might push prices lower less aggressively.

Santiment further elaborated, “A wave of significant realized losses often occurs near market downturns as extreme fear generally peaks before prices do. Once sellers have exhausted their options, even minimal buying can drive prices upward, enhancing the likelihood of a rebound.”

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XRP Realized Losses Compared to Price Moves. Source: Santiment