Half of the months in the last two years have shown positive returns for Bitcoin, signaling a possible increase in its price by December, according to economist Timothy Peterson.
“50% of the past 24 months have been positive. This implies an 88% chance that Bitcoin will be higher 10 months from now,” said Peterson in a post on X. In 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) saw gains during January, April, May, June, July, and September, while the remaining six months experienced declines, as reported by CoinGlass.
Peterson uses a metric that counts the number of positive months within a 24-month span to determine potential market shifts. Ten months from now will be December 22. Traders at Polymarket estimate a 17% chance for December to be Bitcoin’s best month of 2026, just narrowly behind November, projected at 18%.
Historically, November has yielded the highest average returns for Bitcoin since 2013, boasting an average increase of 41.13%, according to CoinGlass.
As the market currently stands, Bitcoin’s price is about 25% lower than at the start of the year, listed at $68,173 at the time of this article.
Analysts remain divided on the future trajectory of Bitcoin. Michael van de Poppe forecasts improvement in the upcoming week, while veteran trader Peter Brandt suggests the real bottom won’t surface until October 2026.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which gauges market sentiment, recently reported an “Extreme Fear” level at 9, indicating significant caution among investors. However, as per Santiment, the diminishing number of Bitcoin price forecasts shared on social media might signal a return to a more neutral sentiment.
