A crucial technical signal is emerging again, hinting at a potential downturn for Bitcoin (BTC). Analyst Ali Martinez has indicated that a ‘death cross’ on the three-day chart could be forming as early as late February, suggesting that BTC might plunge to $40,000 or possibly even $30,000.

Understanding the Death Cross Pattern

Martinez highlights the importance of the three-day chart for comprehending Bitcoin’s macro structure. Historically, the interaction between the 50 and 200 simple moving averages has reliably indicated major downward shifts since 2014. He remarked:

“The death cross between these two moving averages on the 3-day chart has consistently preceded the final leg down of a bear market.”

For instance, after Bitcoin reached its peak in 2013, it fell over 72% before the death cross in December 2014, and then another 52%. Similar patterns followed the peaks of 2017 and 2021, further establishing this trend.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading at just over $66,000 after a significant loss of about $4,000 in recent hours, which is nearly 48% lower than its all-time high of over $126,000 reached in October 2025.

With the potential death cross on the horizon, Martinez pointed out that if historical patterns hold, a 30% decline could bring Bitcoin down to about $40,000, while a deeper cut could see it fall to $30,000.

Market Reaction and External Influences

Bitcoin has seen a drop of approximately 2.5% in the last 24 hours and over 4% for the week, with a staggering 27% loss this past month. This decline has been influenced by external factors, including a recent announcement from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding tariff changes, which typically affects market stability.

As a result, Bitcoin has entered a state of heightened negative sentiment as it reacts to these market conditions, with many observers entering “FUD mode.”