A report from Citrini Research indicating a potential economic decline due to AI has led to a notable sell-off in software and payment stocks.
The report, titled Global Intelligence Crisis, has gained significant traction online, with over 22 million views on X.
According to the report, by June 2028, we could see a troubling scenario with the S&P 500 down by 38%, unemployment exceeding 10%, and significant credit issues, all while AI continues to surpass expectations.
Significant Stock Market Reactions
IBM experienced its worst drop in 25 years on Monday, plunging 13.1% to $223.35, while other tech giants like Microsoft, Oracle, and Accenture saw their stocks decrease by 3.21%, 4.57%, and 6.58%, respectively.
Credit card giants Visa, Mastercard, and American Express also faced declines of 4.5%, 5.77%, and 7.2%, amid concerns of defaults in private credit systems.
These market reactions echo warnings made by Nassim Taleb regarding the risks AI poses to current software companies. Furthermore, findings from Anthropic indicated that their Claude Code tool could modernize legacy software, pointing directly at systems primarily operated by IBM.
Citrini warns that the increased adoption of AI tools could reduce human labor demand, initiating a cycle that compels businesses to further invest in AI, thereby raising concerns about workforce displacement and reduced consumer spending.
Concerns About AI Agent Costs
However, several wealthy tech investors believe the expenses associated with implementing AI agents currently outweigh their benefits. Jason Calacanis reports spending $300 a day on a single AI agent, which operates at only 10% to 20% capacity. Chamath Palihapitiya echoed this sentiment, saying a drastic improvement in AI productivity is necessary for it to be cost-effective compared to human labor. Mark Cuban also highlighted this concern as a significant counterpoint to the argument for AI replacing humans.
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