Bitcoin Breaks Key Trend Line After 30 Months: Are New Lows Ahead?

Bitcoin’s closing weekly candle has dropped below its 200-period exponential moving average (EMA), marking the first occurrence since October 2023. This development ends an impressive 882-day upward trend.

The breach of this average may indicate a shift in market dynamics, directing attention toward Bitcoin’s cost-basis levels and its historical patterns relative to this crucial moving average. These patterns could hint at a longer recovery timeline influenced by historical price behavior.

Potential Resistance Flip for Bitcoin Trend

The 200-week EMA serves as a long-term trend marker for Bitcoin, historically distinguishing growth phases from correction periods. The recent close occurred just under $67,628, breaking a support line that had persisted since late 2023.

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital pointed out this development, stating,

“This technically means that the EMA has been lost as support and that price could turn it into resistance on any upcoming recovery.”

Historical trends show that returning above this EMA has often taken considerable time: in 2018, Bitcoin remained below this level for roughly 14 weeks before recovery, while it took about eight weeks during the March 2020 liquidity shock and close to 30 weeks in 2022. Notably, the average time below the 200-week EMA is approximately 17 to 18 weeks.

Last week, Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. noted that entity-adjusted liveliness peaked in December 2025 during the high of approximately $126,000.

The Significance of Realized Price Bands

Bitcoin’s realized price, resting around $55,000, showcases the average cost basis of all coins. Meanwhile, the adjusted realized price of about $42,000 indicates historically significant liquidity concentrations during market corrections.

With Bitcoin’s price oscillating between the 200-week EMA and this cluster of realized prices, it revisits a historically recognized accumulation zone since 2015, commonly observing consolidation periods lasting six to eight months before significant upward movements.

An upward breach of the 200-week EMA would reinstate key long-term trend criteria, while failure to reclaim focus shifts to $55,000 realized price and the lower level around $42,000 as liquidity hotspots.

Note: This article does not constitute investment advice. Please conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.