Bitcoin’s price dropped from its peak of over $126,000 in October 2025 to $60,000 by early February, marking a significant 52% decline. Analysts widely regarded this drop as a shift into bear market territory, with many forecasting further falls for BTC.

The downturn intensified due to recent military actions involving Israel and the USA against Iran, which resulted in BTC quickly slipping to its local lows. However, it rebounded soon after and surged to a monthly high of $74,000. Although it couldn’t maintain that peak, it currently trades around $70,000, more than 15% above February’s low.

To delve deeper, I posed the question to Gemini and ChatGPT: “Do you think BTC has already reached its lowest point this cycle?”

Is the Bottom Reached?

ChatGPT responded by acknowledging that a decline of over 50% is normal in Bitcoin’s bull cycles and does not automatically indicate a deep bear market. It suggested that the dip to $60,000 aligns historically with a typical mid-cycle shakeout. ChatGPT estimated a 45% probability that this decline represents the final capitulation, citing a complete 50% correction, improved market liquidity, and strong buying interest at that price level.

If the bottom is indeed in, it predicts a rise to $90,000, subsequently breaking the psychological barrier of $100,000 before entering a parabolic phase that could see a new all-time high between $180,000 and $220,000 within the year.

Gemini largely echoed this sentiment, noting several leverage crashes that may have contributed to the bottoming out, stating:

“During that February low, Bitcoin’s momentum indicators and its distance from its 200-day moving average reached oversold levels we haven’t seen since the 2022 bear market or the FTX collapse. The selling pressure simply exhausted itself.”

Not the End Just Yet

Despite the optimistic scenarios suggested by both AI platforms, they acknowledged the possibility of further corrections if global market circumstances deteriorate. Gemini highlighted concerns over institutional interest in riskier assets deteriorating due to inflation fears and ongoing geopolitical tensions. It warned of a 20% chance of a last major sell-off, pushing BTC down to the $48,000 - $52,000 range, with a slight possibility of an extreme panic moment leading it to $42,000, although such an event would likely be brief.

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