BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated he would refrain from investing in Bitcoin (BTC) if he had just one dollar to spend today. He is optimistic that BTC will surpass $100,000 again once central banks resume monetary easing.

Awaiting Fed Action

In a discussion on March 10 with Natalie Brunell from CoinStories, Hayes pointed out that the escalating tensions between the U.S., Israel, and Iran pose risks for a significant market decline, possibly dragging BTC below $60,000.

“As this situation unfolds, there is a chance of a broad market sell-off that could push Bitcoin lower, potentially breaking below $60,000, causing a wave of liquidations,” Hayes expressed in the interview.

He remarked that historical trends indicate each major conflict in the Middle East has prompted the Federal Reserve to opt for monetary printing, meaning that the key factor to watch is the central banks’ actions during this period, rather than the conflicts themselves.

“If I were to invest one dollar right now, I would hold off. The longer these conflicts persist, the greater the chance the Fed will have to inject money into the economy, and that’s when I plan to buy Bitcoin,” he added.

Nevertheless, he urged caution against making assumptions about timing, as many investors rely on mainstream narratives that may lead to misinterpretations of the market.

When discussing Bitcoin’s price stagnation over the last six to nine months, Hayes attributed this to a liquidity crisis rather than a lack of interest in Bitcoin itself.

“Bitcoin is a signal of liquidity,” he asserted, explaining that AI-driven job displacement is contributing to deflationary pressures within the U.S. economy. He noted that there isn’t enough dollar liquidity to satisfy the various demands, particularly from major technology firms investing in data infrastructure.

Misconceptions Regarding Market Manipulation

Hayes also disputed the notion that institutions or large market makers like Jane Street are intentionally suppressing Bitcoin prices.

“I don’t believe there’s a malevolent conspiracy involving Jane Street or other market makers to manipulate prices downward,” Hayes stated.

He suggested that many investors are simply seeking someone to hold accountable for their poor investment decisions and recommended that any trader lacking a professional setup should steer clear of using leverage or short-term strategies.

He described himself as being ‘structurally very bullish on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,’ asserting that the need for decentralized currency today is more pronounced than when Bitcoin was first introduced in 2009.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading slightly below the $70,000 threshold following a period of plateauing price movements. Unlike Hayes’s cautionary outlook of BTC potentially dipping to $60,000, analyst Markus Thielen interprets Bitcoin’s resilience against rising oil prices and geopolitical concerns as a positive indication, consequently heightening the prospects of an ascent to $80,000.