Arthur Hayes Discusses Bitcoin's Advantage Over Gold and Nasdaq 100 Amid Conflict

Bitcoin has shown a remarkable 7% increase since the onset of the U.S.-Iran conflict, a performance that surpasses both gold (down 2%) and the Nasdaq 100 (down 0.5%). This information was relayed by Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, via his social media posts.

Bitcoin’s Performance Versus Traditional Assets

Hayes shared a chart that normalized the performance metrics of Bitcoin against gold and the Nasdaq 100, starting from February 28. This chart illustrated that post-conflict, Bitcoin notably gained while traditional assets faced declines due to rising energy prices from supply disruption fears.

Despite this overall positive trend, Bitcoin’s journey was not without volatility. After the announcement of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran, the cryptocurrency’s value dropped from approximately $66,000 to just over $63,000, before recovering to $67,000 following the death of Iranian leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Market Observations

Market analysts at the London Crypto Club echoed Hayes’ sentiments, observing that Bitcoin seems responsive to extreme market scenarios, potentially covering both ends of the risk spectrum. Today, Bitcoin is trading around $70,000, fluctuating between $69,000 and $71,000 in the last 24 hours, while experiencing losses in the past week.

Looking more broadly, on-chain data from Arab Chain indicates that the Binance BTC Scarcity Index has reached its highest since October 2025, suggesting reduced supply on exchanges, a trend historically seen in bullish market phases.

Hayes’ Future Outlook

Despite the strong performance of Bitcoin, Hayes remains cautious. He has indicated he is refraining from purchasing Bitcoin at this stage due to concerns about the ongoing war potentially causing broader market sell-offs that could affect Bitcoin’s price, potentially pushing it closer to $60,000.

Mike McGlone, a strategist from Bloomberg Intelligence, also provided insights, projecting potential future prices for various assets, indicating a volatile period ahead for risk assets.

Stay tuned for further updates on market movements!