Bitcoin’s long-term holder realized supply reached 8.05 million BTC as of March 11, 2026, reflecting a decline of about 5.5% from the peak of 8,529,671 BTC observed on March 8, 2026, when Bitcoin was valued at $65,974, and the Z-score indicated a level of 3.20. At the latest measurement, the Z-score reduced to 2.66.

Compressed Cycle

According to crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr., the long-term holders’ Bitcoin volume remains historically significant, even amidst the current market fluctuations. When looking at previous cycles this late stage post-halving, specifically on Day 691, current holdings are notably greater.

Adler pointed out that long-term holders currently possess approximately 1.52 times the amount of Bitcoin compared to the 2020 cycle, and about 3.4 times more than the 2016 cycle at similar junctures. He notes that the current Z-score of 2.66 aligns closely with the 2.94 from the 2016 cycle at an equivalent time.

On the contrary, he highlights how the 2020 cycle had a Z-score of only 1.08 at the same post-halving period following the Terra/LUNA collapse, representing a different market structure then.

Adler also analyzed the MA365 ratio, currently at 1.595, which is lower than 2016’s figure of 2.523 but slightly higher than the 2020 cycle’s 1.502. This implies that the market’s overheating in relation to the one-year moving average remains moderate, differing from previous cycles where peaks emerged between Day 880 and 912 after halving, hinting that today’s peak might just indicate a temporary high rather than a conclusive one.

Accumulation Loses Momentum

However, Adler observes that the current market cycle differs significantly due to institutional investments in Bitcoin ETFs, locking a considerable amount of Bitcoin supply, thus reducing the available stock for circulation and potentially hastening accumulation among long-term holders.

Adler mentions a slowdown in accumulation momentum, with the 30-day rate of change standing merely at +7.6% compared to 87% during the 2016 cycle and 51.6% in 2020. The drop-off suggests a transition towards stabilization after the notable accumulation observed in the early months of 2026.