It was precisely a month ago when the US and Israel combined forces to execute military strikes against several locations in Iran, including the assassination of the Supreme Leader, under the premise of a swift operation. Despite former President Trump’s repeated assertions that the US was ahead of schedule and that the war would conclude soon, a clear resolution remains elusive, particularly with Iran’s rejection of a ceasefire proposal. Here’s why the upcoming days could be pivotal.

A Significant Weekend Ahead

Beyond the loss of life and destruction of infrastructure, the war has significantly impacted global economies and affected prices of various assets, notably oil. After substantial fluctuations, with dramatic increases followed by similar declines, oil prices settled at just above $100 per barrel by the end of Friday. Simultaneously, the S&P 500 is at a multi-month low, while the US 10Y Note Yield hovers around 4.5%.

According to analysts at The Kobeissi Letter, Trump “must contain the bond market immediately.” They predict a “highly volatile weekend” before the legacy futures markets reopen late on Sunday.

“If there is no progress made on peace talks and a resolution to the ongoing energy and bond market crisis by the futures open on Sunday at 6 PM ET, we will see the 10Y Note Yield above 4.50% next week.”

We believe this weekend marks a crucial turning point in the Iran conflict: As the bond market continues to struggle, the 10Y Note Yield just reached a new peak of 4.48%. For the first time since the Iran War began, the bond market is approaching or has already entered “crisis” territory.

Bitcoin’s Reaction to Volatility

The primary cryptocurrency has felt the war’s impact directly. After a surge of $13,000—rising from $63,000 to $76,000—it has since lost most of its momentum and fell below $66,000 yesterday. The nature of Bitcoin allows for trading 24/7, making it highly susceptible to weekend developments that can influence its price movements.

If predictions hold true and significant events unfold on Saturday and Sunday, BTC could experience another wild ride. The previous month has showed that volatility magnifies once traditional markets reopen.

At present, BTC has surpassed $66,000 but is still down 6% for the week, with further volatility anticipated in the coming days.