Key Insights:

• The realized price for all bitcoin buyers since inception is over $41,000, with the realized price for those who bought in 2024 at $65,901 by the end of the year.
• Buyers in 2024 averaged a profit of approximately 40%.
• Entering 2025, the average cost basis is estimated at $95,500, reflecting slight profits for recent buyers.

Detailed Analysis

Although the price of bitcoin (BTC) more than doubled in 2024, everyone that purchased the cryptocurrency saw only a small gain. The realized price indicates that bitcoins last moved on-chain at an average price of $65,901 for the year.

This measure is critical for understanding the overall profit and loss of individual investors. Currently, bitcoin would need a drop of around 31% for buyers from 2024 to reach their break-even point. The launch of U.S. spot-listed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on January 11 provides a close approximation of buyers' costs.

Historically, when the bitcoin price fell below its realized price, it often signified a local price floor. This presents a potential trading strategy as we move through 2025, with bitcoin trading over $96,000, implying that even recent buyers are likely at a slight profit as the new year begins.