Overview
Bitcoin's market trends suggest expectations for prices reaching unprecedented heights following the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump on January 20.
On a recent Saturday, a trader on the crypto exchange Deribit executed a transaction exceeding $6 million, purchasing call options at a $100,000 strike price, with an expiration date set for March 28. According to Amberdata, this indicates anticipatory action aimed at breaking the previous Bitcoin price records shortly after Trump officially assumes office.
"This trade anticipates that new highs for bitcoin will be broken just a few months after Trump officially takes office," Amberdata mentioned on X. "Esta operación anticipa que se romperán nuevos máximos para bitcoin unas semanas después de que Trump asuma oficialmente el cargo."
Moreover, traders are showing strength in net positions at the $120,000 strike level, suggesting a robust expectation for a price rally surpassing that amount. Presently, the $120,000 call option stands out as the most sought-after option on Deribit, boasting a notional open interest of $1.52 billion.
A call option grants the purchaser the right to buy the underlying asset at a predetermined price in the future. Buyers of call options generally position themselves positively on market trends, aiming for significant gains from anticipated rallies.
In addition, as Bitcoin attempts to reclaim the $100,000 mark, it is currently trading above $99,500, reflecting an 8% rebound since hitting a low of $91,384 on December 30, based on data from CoinDesk and TradingView.
"The inauguration and immediate aftermath will be a prime time for optimistic announcements and policies that can act as bullish catalysts for Bitcoin to rise," stated Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, in a weekly newsletter. "La inauguración y su inmediata secuela serán momentos clave para anuncios y políticas optimistas que puedan actuar como catalizadores alcistas para que Bitcoin suba."
A regulated cryptocurrency index provider, CF Benchmarks, echoed a similar sentiment while cautioning that any possible delays in policy development could dampen bullishness.
"Leadership changes at the SEC supportive of cryptocurrency might reduce enforcement risks and encourage innovation. Combined with simplified compliance standards, this could boost investor confidence," CF Benchmarks asserted in a report shared with CoinDesk. "Los cambios en el liderazgo de la SEC a favor de las criptomonedas podrían reducir los riesgos de aplicación y fomentar la innovación. Junto con normas de cumplimiento simplificadas, esto podría aumentar la confianza de los inversores."
As optimism regarding pro-crypto regulation has surged since Donald Trump's electoral success in early November, Bitcoin rallied from approximately $70,000 to record highs exceeding $108,000 only weeks post-election. However, this surge has since tapered, particularly during late December, likely due to profit-taking as the year concluded alongside cautious Federal Reserve rate forecasts.
