Confidence Grows in Justin Trudeau's Impending Resignation by Week's End

What You Need to Know

Canadian newspapers are predicting the resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Bettors at Polymarket foresee his departure by Friday, but express doubts about an immediate announcement.

As speculation grows about Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s potential resignation, Polymarket bettors are actively wagering on the timing of this political shift. Current bets indicate varied levels of confidence regarding the timing, with one asking if he will resign by February and another by April, but the latest buzz puts the timeline as early as next Wednesday.

The Toronto Star suggests his resignation could come as soon as Monday, whereas the Globe and Mail reports the announcement will precede a Liberal Party caucus meeting scheduled for Wednesday. Polymarket data shows divided sentiments; one contract suggests a mere 24% chance Trudeau will resign at the start of the week, while another bets on him stepping down by Wednesday at a 72% likelihood.

While both The Toronto Star and The Globe and Mail appear to be in sync on the imminent nature of Trudeau’s departure, Reuters—after consulting different sources—highlighted uncertainty in Trudeau’s decision-making process. In recent polling, Trudeau holds a 22% approval rating, signaling a challenging environment for his Liberal Party.

Additional Insights

Interestingly, bettors are also speculating on Canada becoming the 51st US state by July, a thought born from humorous remarks in political discourse, now engineered into a 3% chance on Polymarket.

Justin Trudeau at a Pride Parade Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at a 2017 Pride Parade (Joy Real/Unsplash)