What You Need to Know

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Analysis of Market Trends

As we kick off 2025, a notable divergence is emerging between Bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P 500 (SPX).

BTC is probing a position above $100,000, as suggested by the bullish trend in its options. Conversely, the SPX is demonstrating less favorable signs for risk assets.

According to recent data from Cboe, the SPX options are now indicating heightened downside risk compared to a year ago, possibly reflecting cautious investor sentiment due to various factors, including President-elect Donald Trump's upcoming inauguration on January 20. Concerns abound that this event could trigger a 'sell-the-news' reaction in the markets.

Bruce J Clark, head of rates America at Informa Connect, expressed on LinkedIn, "Broadly, we detect some weaknesses in the data and speculate that Trump’s inauguration this month could very well lead to a selling event after three months of unchecked economic optimism across different sectors."

"Broadly, we see some cracks in the data and think that Trump’s inauguration later this month has a decent chance of being a ‘sell the news’ event after nearly three months of unbridled economic optimism across most sectors." — Bruce J Clark, Head of Rates America at Informa Connect.

This raises an important question: How will BTC be impacted? The expectations of clearer regulations under Trump have previously propelled the cryptocurrency from $70,000 to over $100,000 in merely two months. However, a broader market sell-off post-inauguration could lead to declines in the dollar index and bond yields, which may actually foster support for BTC.

Several factors, however, are currently bolstering BTC's position. For example, the liquidity that was drained from the market during the last two weeks of 2024, amounting to $400 billion, is likely to re-enter the system, which could benefit asset prices. Additionally, capital flows from China are anticipated to seek refuge in cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin is trading at a premium on Coinbase, signaling stronger domestic demand amidst expectations that miners will reduce their sales.

Analysts at Bitfinex have commented, "The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) for miners is currently very favorable, remaining around 0.5, indicating that miners are still well-positioned, holding significant unrealized profits and a preference to retain their BTC for now."

In the broader context, there’s movement in some traders experimenting with December 2025 ETH calls at strike prices reaching as high as $11,000, while Ether is trading under $4,000. As of report time, over 70 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap saw price increases over the past 24 hours.

Things to Monitor

Crypto

• Jan 7: Launch of Dusk (DUSK) mainnet.
• Jan 8: Bybit ends withdrawal and custody services for French territories.
• Jan 8: Xterio (XTER) token generation.
• Jan 9, 1:00 a.m.: Cronos (CRO) zkEVM mainnet upgrade. ... (list continues)

Macro Events

• Jan 7, 8:55 a.m.: U.S. Redbook Year-over-Year for the week ending January 4.
• Jan 8, 8:30 a.m.: Speech on Economic Outlook by Christopher J. Waller at a lecture event in Paris. ... (list continues)

Market Movements

• BTC: Down 0.23% to $101,428.11.
• ETH: Down 0.28% at $3,658.61. ... (list continues)

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance at 57.55%.
• Total Fees: 6.6 BTC / $665,000. ... (list continues)

For further updates, stay tuned.