Two U.S.-regulated, dollar-denominated prediction markets began taking bets on the presidential race this week, with a month to go before Election Day.

Kalshi, which fought a long legal battle with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to offer election contracts in the U.S., launched its presidential markets on Friday, following Wall Street powerhouse Interactive Brokers' ForecastEx, which did so the day before.

So far, volumes are modest at both CFTC-supervised exchanges, with $344,101 worth of contracts traded on Kalshi and $346,000 on ForecastEx. By comparison, more than $1.2 billion has been staked on the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump at Polymarket, the crypto-powered prediction market platform.

"It will be hard for the two sites to catch up, but that is not entirely impossible," said Koleman Strumpf, an economics professor at Wake Forest University. He noted that more than half of all trades will happen between now and election day based on historical trends.

However, Aaron Brogan, a managing attorney at Brogan Law, pointed out that Polymarket has advantages beyond being the first mover, including broader accessibility and no explicit position limits.

Price Differences

Traders currently give Kamala Harris a 51% chance of winning, while Donald Trump is pegged at 50%. On ForecastEx, Harris is leading by a wider margin of 53 to 47.

Harry Crane, a statistics professor, remarked that the discrepancies in trading volumes don't detract from the predictive value of these markets. "Over time, observers can collect data on these markets to determine their predictive accuracy," he said.

Unfinished Business

Kalshi has been involved in legal battles and has recently been allowed to list congressional contracts. Their recent self-certification process has led to the launch of presidential contracts amid ongoing CFTC scrutiny.