Key Points:

• Long-term bitcoin holders, considered “smart money,” have sold over 1 million BTC since September.
• In past market cycles, a decrease in their sales has often signaled a peak in bitcoin prices.

Recent Developments

Long-term holders of bitcoin appear to have concluded their recent selling period, which has positively influenced the market’s performance, converting the previously psychological $100,000 resistance into a supportive price level. Since January 17, Bitcoin has maintained a level above this mark. Recent fluctuations have also been influenced by President Donald Trump’s inauguration, resulting in increased market volatility.

Historically, this group, which includes investors who have owned bitcoin for more than 155 days, has created considerable selling pressure on the market. According to research by CoinDesk, they are labeled as “smart money” because they typically buy during price dips and sell in moments of strength. As of September, they held 14.2 million BTC, which has since decreased to 13.1 million BTC. Although the sales tempo has slowed recently, it remains noteworthy as prices experience upward movement.

Trends to Watch

The critical factor to monitor is when these long-term holders cease their selling activities, as this can often indicate a peak in the market cycle—as seen in previous years 2013, 2017, 2021, and 2024.