U.S. Election Market: Kalshi Resumes Betting on Presidential Contracts
Kalshi has restarted betting on Congress after a court decision, while forecasts for the presidency are in the works from multiple markets.
As the U.S. election approaches, Kalshi resumes its prediction markets after successfully appealing to lift a previous order that paused betting on Congressional control. The company is also set to offer contracts for predicting the presidential winner, as noted in regulatory filings.
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia recently denied a motion from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to prevent these contracts while the agency appeals a prior court ruling against it. Circuit Judge Patricia Millett stated that the CFTC did not demonstrate potential harm to justify a stay on Kalshi's activities.
In light of this decision, Kalshi announced the self-certification of a new presidential contract with the CFTC. Luana Lopes Lara, co-founder of Kalshi, hinted at the launch of this new market on social media.
A clock on Kalshi's website suggests the presidential contract will debut Thursday afternoon U.S. time. Meanwhile, the relisted Congressional contracts suggest a high probability of Republican control of the Senate and a competitive chance for Democrats in the House.
Overall, the market activity reflects a surge in interest around the upcoming elections, with significant funds already at play in the betting scenes. Kalshi aims to cater to institutional investors despite concerns about large election contracts affecting the political landscape.