Key Insights
- February’s $5 billion bitcoin options expiry is due Friday at 08:00 UTC.
- Bitcoin’s max pain price is set at $98,000, which is significantly higher than the current market price.
Overview
Around $5 billion in bitcoin (BTC) options will expire on Deribit this Friday, coinciding with an already tumultuous crypto market.
Initially, Bitcoin’s sustained stagnation had led to a decline in Deribit’s volatility index (DVOL) over the course of 2025. However, following a recent fall in Bitcoin prices, DVOL surged to 52 before settling back below 50, indicating a short-lived spike in market apprehension.
The recent dip below $90,000 has rendered many options out-of-the-money (OTM), leaving traders with notable unrealized losses.
An option gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price before a specified period ends. According to Deribit data, approximately $3.9 billion (or 78%) of the $5 billion due today is set to expire worthless as they are out-of-the-money.
Almost all call options are currently out-of-the-money as the price of Bitcoin dropped significantly over the past days. In contrast, $1.1 billion (22%) remains in-the-money with puts dominating, meaning these options currently hold value.
Max pain is theorized to be at $98,000, which is $10,000 higher than the current market price. Max pain represents the price at which option sellers typically maximize their profits while buyers incur the largest losses.
Due to the current spot price being significantly lower than the max pain level, it might encourage options sellers to drive the price of Bitcoin upward as the expiry approaches, as suggested by PowerTrade.
“As the month’s end is soon, traders in bitcoin options should remain vigilant. The max pain for this expiry is $98,000, with a significant $5 billion in notional value. This concentration of open interest could lead market makers to manipulate the price closer to this threshold. Expect heightened volatility and potential price movement towards this level,” remarked PowerTrade on X.
Conclusion
Only time will tell if the prediction based on the max pain theory materializes.
