Trump’s Presidency and the Skepticism Surrounding U.S. Bitcoin Reserve
Polymarket bettors suggest that while President Trump is starting the process of setting up a U.S. Bitcoin (BTC) reserve, there is still considerable skepticism regarding its realization within the early days of his presidency.
What to Know:
- The initial announcement spurred significant interest and a surge in XRP and SOL prices, but it was clarified that both BTC and ETH would also be included in the prospective reserve.
A recent announcement made on Truth Social by President Donald Trump set into motion the initial steps to establish a strategic U.S. Bitcoin reserve, yet Polymarket bettors are uncertain that it will materialize in the first 100 days of his presidency.
As of the latest updates, Polymarket participants are forecasting only a 23% probability that a strategic BTC reserve will be crystallized by April 30, 2025.
Chances for the reserve to materialize spiked from 11% to 23% following Trump’s announcement. According to Polymarket, another contract asking if the reserve will be created by the end of 2025 currently shows a 65% chance of yes.
Initial reactions to Trump’s announcement only acknowledged XRP and SOL; however, he later confirmed that BTC and ETH would also be part of the reserve.
Additionally, a notable trader known as Theo5, linked to a French trader, has seen significant success with the resulting trades. Currently, Theo5 reports a profit of $40,000 from a ’no’ position on the contract. Conversely, a trader identified as Polywog reportedly lost $73,000 betting on their yes position.
