Crypto Daybook Americas: BTC and Altcoin Declines Might Hint at Equity Market Risks

Crypto Daybook Americas

Your day-ahead look for March 4, 2025

The spotlight is back on the CME bitcoin (BTC) futures chart as it adjusts to a recent 12% decline. This drop enabled the completion of the latest CME gap, which occurred while the exchange was closed over the weekend and followed bitcoin’s previous climb to $95,000.

According to RiggsBTC, since the inception of bitcoin futures in December 2017, 80 gaps have occurred, leaving just one unfilled at $21,000.

In a broader economic context, the U.S. is grappling with slower growth due to budget cuts, trade uncertainties, and a struggling housing market. Inflation rates are expected to decline as the Federal Reserve emphasizes employment over controlling prices, noted Professor Satoshi, an analyst at Greeks Live Options Trader.

Professor Satoshi further suggests that the equity market is overvalued and projects the S&P 500 may fall to between 5700 and 5500. This period of heightened risk in the crypto market often precedes downturns in equities.

“Altcoins are being de-risked now, leading to major cryptocurrencies facing similar pressures shortly after. Typically, we observe a decline in crypto first followed by equities,” remarked Professor Satoshi.

He anticipates the Federal Reserve may not lower interest rates in March, with a possible significant cut of 50 basis points projected in May. Additionally, he speculates on the return of quantitative easing this year, a topic he’s believed in since last year’s market anxiety.

“The Federal Reserve will always be reactive, and I’ve marked on my predictions for 2025 the return of quantitative easing, which many view as unlikely, given the events following last year’s growth slowdown.”

Stay vigilant! Additionally, the rising strength of the Japanese Yen, currently at its strongest rate this year against the dollar at 148, might be an early indicator of shifts in the market.

What to Watch

Crypto:

March 5, 2:29 a.m.: Ethereum testnet Sepolia will implement the Pectra hard fork at epoch 222464.
March 5, 11:00 a.m.: Circle hosts a webinar titled “State of the USDC Economy 2025,” featuring Circle’s Chief Strategy Officer Dante Disparte along with executives from Bridge, Nubank, and Cumberland.
March 6: Ethereum-based Layer 2 blockchain MegaETH deploys its public testnet, with user onboarding starting on March 10.
March 7: President Trump will host the inaugural White House Crypto Summit, which will welcome leading cryptocurrency founders, CEOs, and investors.

Macro:

March 4, 8:00 p.m.: The commencement of China’s 14th National People’s Congress (NPC) Third Annual Session.
March 4, 8:30 p.m.: Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s address at the IMF event “Asia and the IMF: Resilience through Cooperation” in Tokyo.
March 5, 4:00 a.m.: HCOB releases February eurozone PMI data.
March 5, 5:00 a.m.: Eurostat publishes January eurozone wholesale inflation data.

Earnings (Estimates from FactSet):

March 6 (TBC): Bitfarms (BITF): $-0.04
March 17 (TBC): Bit Digital (BTBT): $-0.05

Conferences

CoinDesk’s Consensus is set for Toronto from May 14-16. Use code DAYBOOK for a 15% discount on tickets.