Bitcoin is nearing the record for the longest sideways market range post-halving, currently sitting at 285 days since its last halving in April.

Factors contributing to Bitcoin's subdued price action include the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. elections, rising Treasury yields, and the extension of Mt. Gox's repayment deadline to October 2025.

Historically, October tends to be bullish for Bitcoin, especially in its second half.

Market Observations

• Bitcoin is two weeks from marking its longest-ever sideways period since the recent halving, frustrating bulls hoping for a rally in Q4.
• CryptoQuant's Ki Young-Ju commented, “285 days have passed since the bitcoin halving. If there is no bull market in 14 days, this will mark the longest sideways post-halving in history.”
• Halvings occur approximately every four years and lead to decreased mining rewards, traditionally spurring bull markets.

Price Trends

Prices generally rise with fewer new bitcoins entering the market, assuming steady or increasing demand. BTC reached above $73,000 before the halving, with expectations of hitting $160,000 by year-end. However, it has since fluctuated between $59,000 and $65,000 - close to breaking historic sideways action records observed in 2016.

Bitcoin's stagnant price trend is ascribed to various reasons, with ongoing accumulation from smaller investors amid broader market uncertainties.

Augustine Fan, insights head at SOFA, noted, “The increase in bond yields and record highs in SPX are pushing the USD higher but negatively affecting crypto, with BTC stabilizing around the $60k level.”

Recent developments from Mt. Gox, which announced a delayed repayment deadline to October 2025, may alleviate some immediate supply pressures, although BTC dynamics are expected to remain stable heading into the election's final weeks.

Republican candidate Donald Trump is perceived as crypto-friendly, linked with the decentralized finance project World Liberty Finance, whereas the Democratic stance is less accommodating. A Republican victory could potentially drive Bitcoin prices higher.

Market dynamics often lead to sideways movements, as traders reassess their positions, prompting a balance between buying and selling pressures.

To indicate a bullish breakout above current ranges, Bitcoin must sustain above the $69,000 level, according to CoinDesk's analyst Omkar Godbole. This breakout could revive the upward trend initiated from October 2023 lows, with traders eyeing a move towards $100,000, an anticipated target among options traders.

Bitcoin's current price trajectory comes after a traditionally bearish phase in August and September. Current analyses suggest most gains typically unfold in the later half of October, especially post-October 16.

However, ongoing scrutiny remains, as the U.S. SEC has filed charges against multiple firms in recent days, which may lead to further complications for the crypto market in the weeks before the November elections.