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Bitcoin (BTC) has found some stability around its 200-day average at about $84,000 after dipping below $77,000 early last week. The broader market recovery was led by memecoins, layer-2 tokens, and gaming tokens.
However, maintaining a sustained uptick could still be a challenge, especially since President Donald Trump’s administration appears to have a higher tolerance for market instability than many expected. Just two months ago, when Trump took office, the crypto market was buzzing with optimism that any turbulence created by tariffs would lead to prompt policy support from the White House.
That optimism seems to have been misplaced. Over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said corrections are healthy and normal, a hint that the anticipated “Trump put” might take longer to materialize than traders hoped.
More importantly, on NBC News’ “Meet the Press” on Sunday, Bessent did not rule out the possibility of a recession. This starkly contrasts with government officials’ typical attitude of emphasizing a “glass half full” perspective when the going gets tough.
It could mean Trump isn’t ready to back down from his tariff fight just yet, keeping risk assets feeling uneasy. If stock prices continue to fall, it’s hard to imagine bitcoin staying resilient for long, especially given the lack of uplifting narratives in the crypto market.
“It’s just a guess, but I doubt Trump will reverse course on tariffs and his drive to bring U.S. manufacturing back at these price levels,” Greg Magadini, director of derivatives at Amberdata, shared in an email. “I can’t picture a scenario where risk assets crash and crypto remains unaffected, or where the VIX increases and crypto’s implied volatility doesn’t follow suit.”
Plus, sentiment is deteriorating on Main Street, which could add to the recent risk aversion in both the crypto and traditional markets. A chart shared on X by Otavio Costa, a macro strategist at Crescat’s Capital, highlights a record number of U.S. consumers expecting conditions to worsen over the next year (see Chart of the Day, below).
The focus on macro means traders will follow Wednesday’s Fed meeting for cues on the central bank’s readiness to deploy stimulus. The bar is low after Chairman Powell said the bank is in a wait-and-watch mode to assess the impact of Trump’s policies before cutting rates.
In other news, Aave Labs’s Founder, Stani Kulechov, confirmed that the Aave decentralized autonomous organization had reached a clear consensus against introducing a new token for Horizon, an Aave initiative to integrate real-world assets into decentralized finance.
Trump is reportedly going to talk to Russian President Vladimir Putin about ending the Ukraine war. Digital asset prime broker FalconX said it had completed the “first-ever” block trade in CME’s SOL futures with StoneX as counterparty.
What to Watch
Crypto:
- March 17: CME Group launches solana (SOL) futures.
- March 17: Ethereum (ETH) testnet Hoodi goes live.
- March 18: Zano (ZANO) hard fork network upgrade; this activates “ETH Signature support for off-chain signing and asset operations.”
- March 20: Pascal hard fork network upgrade goes live on the BNB Smart Chain (BSC) mainnet.
- March 21, 1:00 p.m.: The SEC’s Crypto Task Force hosts a roundtable, open to the public, that will focus on the definition of a security.
- March 24 (before market open): Bitcoin miner CleanSpark (CLSK) will join the S&P SmallCap 600 index.
- March 24, 11:00 a.m.: Bugis network upgrade goes live on Enjin Matrixchain mainnet.
- March 25: The Mimir upgrade goes live on Chromia (CHR) mainnet.
