Key Takeaways
- Inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have stalled in 2025, failing to match the strong growth seen in their debut year.
- Weaker bitcoin price action and diminished arbitrage opportunities have reduced investor appetite, especially from institutions.
Over the past 30 days, a net $180 million has flowed out of U.S. spot bitcoin (BTC) ETFs, marking one of the highest withdrawal rates since trading began in early 2024. The performance of the ETFs has disappointed this year, largely due to bitcoin’s approximately 10% drop in value. Although there was a recent increase in inflows of about $700 million over five days, total net inflows since inception stand at $36.1 billion, according to Farside data.
The primary factors for recent outflows include heightened volatility in bitcoin’s price and the unwinding of the basis trade, a strategy where investors take long positions in ETFs while shorting CME bitcoin futures. In 2025, bitcoin’s price exhibited significant volatility, peaking at $109,000 in January and plunging to $76,000 by March amid uncertainties concerning policy changes under the Trump administration.
Typically, retail investors sell assets during volatile periods, reacting to market fluctuations. Meanwhile, institutions are moving away from cash-and-carry trades due to lower yields, now at around 2% — among the lowest since ETFs began in 2024. As U.S. Treasuries offer safer, higher yields, many investors prefer this risk-averse route.
ETF inflows and outflows can often indicate market turning points. Aggressive outflows typically align with local lows in bitcoin’s price, particularly when evaluated using a 30-day moving average. Observations in March, as well as previous declines in August and April of 2024, have confirmed this trend.
