Crypto Daybook Americas: Bitcoin Set to Rise as $31.8 Billion in Stablecoins Awaits
A comprehensive overview of the latest happenings in the cryptocurrency markets, focusing on Bitcoin and stablecoins.
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The sun shone on crypto markets early Wednesday, with bitcoin having another go at $88,000 amid growing chatter about bullish seasonality factors as March draws to a close and the second quarter looms.
The last 10 years of price data tracked by analyst Miles Deutscher show April as the turning point for the market, with a 75% chance of upside between now and year-end. The pattern was noted by QCP Capital as well, which pointed to the second quarter, and April in particular, as bullish for crypto.
“The S&P 500 has delivered an average annualized return of 19.6% in Q2, while Bitcoin has also recorded its second-best median performance during this stretch - again, trailing only Q4,” the Singapore-based firm said on Telegram.
“S&P 500 has delivered an average annualized return of 19.6% in the second quarter, while Bitcoin has also recorded its second-best median performance during this period.”
Seasonality factors are not as reliable as standalone indicators, but when coupled with other signs, such as the recent halt in selling by long-term holders, they appear credible.
The so-called 1Y+HODL wave indicator, which tracks the proportion of Bitcoin addresses that have kept their BTC for at least one year, has turned upward, signaling a shift into a holding strategy according to data source Bitbo Charts.
Recent reports indicate that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is drafting rules to remove reputational risk from its bank supervision, which was labeled “a big win for crypto” by White House crypto czar David Sacks.
Speaking of the wider market, social media talk about stablecoins has picked up, with observers pointing to $31.8 billion in stablecoins sitting on the sidelines on Binance as potential dry powder waiting for a catalyst. BlackRock’s decision to debut a physical bitcoin exchange-traded product in Europe with a reduced total expense ratio of 15 bps is seen as highly positive, considering fees are generally higher there than in the U.S., capping widespread adoption.
But macroeconomic uncertainty still looms. Recent media reports suggest President Donald Trump’s expected reciprocal tariffs on April 2 may be softer than expected, yet there is still considerable confusion concerning the legality of the tariffs and the countries that will be targeted.
