What You Need to Know:

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CORRECT (April 3, 11:30 UTC): Corrects the headline to indicate that Bitcoin fell following the tariff announcement; previous versions claimed it remained steady.

Liberation Day has passed, and there’s clarity regarding U.S. tariffs, effective April 5. All U.S. trading partners will encounter a minimum 10% import tariff, with certain countries facing higher, bespoke tariffs after April 9.

President Trump introduced these tariffs citing trade imbalances and non-tariff barriers, aiming to promote reshoring production and generate revenue for tax cuts while leveling the playing field for American manufacturers.

China is significantly impacted, facing a new 34% tariff added to its existing levy, summing its total to 54%. Other Asian economies will also bear the brunt, with the European Union facing a proposed 20% tariff.

Emerging interest surrounds the methodology used to calculate these tariff rates, which the administration describes as reciprocal. A claim shared on X suggests using a country’s trade deficit with the U.S. divided by their exports to the U.S. to derive the tariff rate.

For example, Vietnam exports $136.6 billion and imports $13.1 billion, leading to a $123.5 billion trade deficit. Dividing the deficit by exports yields an approximate 90%, correlating with the applied tariffs.

Market Reactions

Global stocks experienced declines, notably the Nikkei 225 which fell 2.8%—a drop as severe as 4.6%. Nasdaq futures plummeted over 3.5%, with Vietnam seeing a 5.5% reduction in its stock market, its steepest single-day decline in over four years.

The dollar weakened against other currencies; the yen surged to 147 against the dollar while the pound rose to 1.31. The dollar index (DXY) dipped to 102.5. Bitcoin (BTC) remains stable above $83,000 but still trails behind its crucial 200-day moving average of $86,400.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield stands at just above 4%, the lowest since October—seen as favorable for the administration to reduce interest rates. Stay alert!

What to Watch

• Crypto:
  • April 5: The purported birthday of Satoshi Nakamoto.
  • April 9, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. House Financial Services Committee hearing regarding updates to U.S. securities laws to include digital assets. Livestream available here.
• Macro:
  • April 3, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Department of Labor releases unemployment insurance data for the week ending March 29.
    • Initial Jobless Claims Est. 225K vs. Prev. 224K
  • April 3, 9:00 a.m.: S&P Global to release Brazil March PMI data.
  • Additional details on upcoming data releases follow.

Tariff Overview

• April 5: Trump administration’s 10% baseline tariff commences for all imports.
• April 9: Specific higher tariffs implement for top trade deficit nations.