Key Insights
- President Trump has implemented tariffs impacting 180 countries, igniting concerns of potential recessions and the anticipation of Federal Reserve rate reductions.
- A robust NFP for March might be dismissed as outdated while a weak report could heighten recession anxiety.
- Bitcoin’s relative price stability indicates seller fatigue, with forecasts suggesting a 3.4% price movement ahead.
Overview
As anticipation builds for the March U.S. nonfarm payroll (NFP) report, Bitcoin (BTC) advocates are likening their situation to the character Two-Face from “The Dark Knight”. Just like him, they appear confident in their control over outcomes, irrespective of what the jobs data reflects.
It’s a classic “heads I win, tails you lose” situation, indicating that Bitcoin supporters are likely to benefit regardless of whether the data shows a strong or weak labor market.
This predicament stems from President Trump’s recent decision to enforce tariffs affecting numerous countries, inciting markets to assess recession risks and the likelihood of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Consequently, should the jobs report show stronger-than-expected data, typically strengthening the dollar and pressuring risk assets like BTC, it may be overlooked, giving way to gains for the cryptocurrency.
Conversely, a disappointing report could exacerbate recession concerns, bolstering predictions for rate cuts, thus encouraging more risk-taking in the markets.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $84,190, having recently dipped below $82,000, which demonstrates resilience in the face of uncertainty. Its ability to maintain prices above March’s low of $77,000 speaks volumes about market fatigue among sellers, hinting at potential price increases.
Bitcoin’s implied volatility suggests an expected price fluctuation of 3.4% in the next day. Analysts expect the NFP data to be released at 12:30 UTC, with an estimated median nonfarm payroll employment number of 130,000, a decrease from February’s 151,000, while the unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.2% from 4.1%.
Moreover, rate traders are anticipating a total of 100 basis points in Fed rate cuts this year, with movements expected to commence in June.
