Bitcoin Sees Largest Q1 Loss in a Decade, Prompting Market Speculation

Summary

Bitcoin recently posted a 11.7% decline in the first quarter of 2025, marking its most disappointing start to a year since 2015 as investors reacted to prevailing economic uncertainties.

Insights

Bitcoin's decline places it 12th in performance among the last 15 Q1s, as per NYDIG Research.
Uncertainties regarding tariff policies and profit-taking are highlighted as reasons behind this downturn.
The recent market conditions call into question the current state of the cryptocurrency cycle.

Bitcoin managed to record its worst first quarter since 2015, falling 11.7% as investors grappled with the impact of the new administration’s economic plans. NYDIG Research highlights this performance places it 12th out of the 15 worst first quarters.

The downturn raises the frequent question in the crypto community: has the market cycle concluded? The last instance of such a gloomy start was in 2015, which followed a massive slump post the 2013 peak and the collapse of Mt. Gox. In that scenario, the market saw a modest recovery before gaining significant ground in 2016.

Similar patterns were noted in earlier years like 2020, where despite a poor start amid pandemic fears, Bitcoin ended the year over 300% up. The macroeconomic backdrop, however, remains complex, especially with the current administration’s initiation of reciprocal tariffs against various countries, which has already caused significant downtrends in equity markets. NYDIG’s data indicates that Bitcoin has successfully bounced back in several instances where it began the year negatively. Given the recent rise in recession predictions, it will be intriguing to see if Bitcoin retains its status as a hedge against economic turmoil.