Key Insights

• Long-term holders might experience unrealized losses if Bitcoin reaches $65,000, identified by analyst James Check as the ’true market mean.'
• A market value of $1 trillion for Bitcoin, translating to approximately $50,000, is expected to provide robust support.

Where Is Bitcoin Heading?

On-chain analyst James Check suggested that the actual market bottom may not have been reached unless a capitulation event occurs, hinting that a drop to $65,000 could be necessary to realize significant market shifts.

According to Check, this price point marks the average investment cost for many traders and may lead to considerable pressure on those who have invested in Bitcoin if it declines further. He noted that even those who have held Bitcoin for extended periods could face losses.

Interestingly, this predicted price is in line with Michael Saylor’s strategy, which estimates a cost basis around $67,500.

Expected Support Levels

While Check anticipates notable declines leading from $65,000, he expects strong support in the $49,000-$50,000 range, coinciding with significant market events in 2024 and a $1 trillion market cap for Bitcoin. He finds a decline to $40,000 unlikely unless a global recession triggers such a movement.

Check referenced the lengthy period of ‘chopsolidation’ during 2024, where Bitcoin fluctuated between $50,000 and $70,000, reinforcing a foundation for future market stability.

For more discussions, listen to Check on the TFTC podcast.