Market Overview

The cryptocurrency landscape has showed signs of a slowdown recently, confirming what many within the industry have sensed. According to Coinbase’s April 2025 Monthly Outlook, the market has cooled down significantly. While it’s currently in the red, hopes are held for a rebound in the latter half of the year.

The altcoin market cap has faced a severe decline of about 41% since December, decreasing from $1.6 trillion to approximately $950 billion. Although this isn’t a total collapse, it does challenge investors’ patience.

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The crypto market is officially in bearish territory with a total market cap down by 41% from its December highs. The COIN50 index below its 200-day moving average indicates ongoing weakness; however, stability might begin to form by late Q2, with potential recovery in Q3 if global conditions improve.

— NeomaVentures (@NeomaVentures) April 16, 2025

Market Sentiment Indicators

David Duong, Coinbase’s head of research, does not shy away from stating the facts. He underscores that current data suggests we are in a neutral-to-bearish market, hinting that the bullish trend likely peaked in February—despite many traders questioning if that was indeed the top.

Several critical indicators confirm this sentiment, including the widely referenced 200-day moving average, which shows Bitcoin’s drastic fall of around 76% between November 2021 and November 2022. Importantly, when adjusted for risk, this decline mirrors the 22% drop of the S&P 500.

Another evaluated metric is the Bitcoin Z-score, a gauge for comparing current price extremes against historical standards, indicating a cautious market.

Outlook for Q3 2025

Despite the current slump, Duong remains hopeful, indicating that the market could potentially rebound as soon as the 2nd half of the year. Pullbacks are seen as a standard aspect of market cycles—resetting overvaluations and curbing exuberance. Once sentiment stabilizes, recoveries can materialize rapidly, particularly if broader market conditions shift positively.

As summer ends, stay vigilant; cryptocurrency may surprise yet again with its recovery.