Key Insights
- The $300K call option is now the second most sought-after bet in the June expiry, highlighting a speculative outlook on Bitcoin’s potential rise.
- This June is set to have the largest number of pending settlements for the year.
- An observer likened betting on such options to buying lottery tickets.
In the realm of cryptocurrency, ambitious forecasts are not mere speculation—they are often grounded in substantial investments, particularly through options that act similarly to lottery tickets, providing potentially high returns for relatively minimal initial investments.
Currently attracting attention is the Deribit-listed $300,000 strike Bitcoin call option, set to expire on June 26. This option essentially wagers that Bitcoin’s spot price could soar to over $300,000 by the end of the first half of 2025.
Market Dynamics
As of the latest update, over 5,000 contracts for the June $300K call option were active, accumulating a notional open interest of $484 million, making it the second most popular option bet in the upcoming expiry period, just behind the $110K call option.
Deribit, the leading exchange for crypto options, hosts over 75% of global options trading activity. Each contract on this exchange corresponds to 1 Bitcoin, with quarterly expirations like the June 26 deadline instigating increased market activity and price volatility. Traders leverage these deadlines to hedge their positions, solidify gains, or speculate on price movements.
Spencer Hallarn, a derivatives trader at GSR, mentioned, “There are always folks that want the hyperinflation hedge,” in response to the notable open interest in the $300K call option. Such strategies often involve deep out-of-the-money options—referred to as wings—requiring a significant price increase to yield profits, making them less expensive than options closer to the current market rate. However, the potential reward is substantial if the market experiences a rally, likening these strategies to playing the lottery with long odds but high payouts.
Simranjeet Singh from GSR speculated that the interest in this $300K call option may stem from a favorable U.S. regulatory narrative towards cryptocurrencies.
