Low Odds for Bitcoin Surpassing $100K by Year-End
Market analysts suggest that the chances of Bitcoin exceeding $100,000 by the end of the year are significantly low despite bullish sentiments.
The outlook on Bitcoin's price by the end of the year appears bleak, despite optimism from both retail and institutional investors. Insights from the options market reveal a mere 9.58% probability of Bitcoin (BTC) surpassing $100,000 by December 27.
Current Market Sentiment
Both types of investors are rallying around the expectation that BTC could reach at least $100,000 by year-end. Nevertheless, the data from Deribit, the leading Bitcoin options exchange, suggests that the current pricing provides only limited chances of this bullish forecast coming true.
"The current market implied volatility of BTC at-the-money options expiring on December 27 is 54%, indicating a reasonable potential for price fluctuations by then," observed Griffin Ardern from BloFin.
The optimism surrounding a possible price increase, alongside a higher likelihood of BTC hitting $82,000, reflects the expectations around the upcoming U.S. presidential election, with Donald Trump leading against Kamala Harris in polls.
The Influence of the Election
With the U.S. presidential election approaching on November 5, the outcome could have crucial regulatory implications for the crypto market. Investors should brace themselves for the volatility that may follow the electoral results.
In conclusion, while $100,000 remains a tantalizing goal for Bitcoin, the available data paints a different narrative, compelling traders to consider $82,000 as a more realistic target.
