Unexpected Market Shift: Trump’s Betting Odds Surge on Polymarket
A significant trade on Polymarket briefly inflated Donald Trump's presidential odds to 99%, despite the underlying market reflecting a lower probability.
An entity caused a temporary mispricing on Polymarket by buying more than 4.5 million contracts related to Trump's chances in the 2024 Presidential Election, pushing the odds to 99% for part of this purchase due to the mechanics of the order book. This anomaly happened despite actual market odds being around 63%, demonstrating how large trades can skew odds on prediction platforms.
- The account 'GCorttell93' purchased over 4.5 million Trump contracts, spending more than $3 million in a short timeframe. A portion of this, worth $275,000, was filled at the inflated 99% odds, while the rest of the bets were made at more standard prices, such as $129,000 at 65.9 cents.
This situation raises questions about how selling and buying dynamics can impact the perception of an event’s outcomes in markets like Polymarket.
Trump leads the betting at 63%, with his competitor, Kamala Harris, posing a 36% chance of victory in the election predicted by the betting platform.