Crypto Daybook Americas: A Gloomy Outlook for Bitcoin This June as ETF Investments Decline
Your day-ahead look for June 5, 2025
What to know:
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Market Overview
Bitcoin (BTC) and several primary cryptocurrencies are presenting little clarity for traders as inflows into spot ETFs diminish during this traditionally sluggish period in June.
According to 10x Research, June typically presents a varied and generally bearish performance for major cryptocurrencies. Over the past decade, Bitcoin has shown an average return of 1.9%, with just as many positive months as negative. Ethereum’s ether (ETH) has been worse off, averaging an 11.7% drop, seeing only a positive trend two out of the last seven Junes. On the other hand, SOL has shown a more robust performance.
Recent trends indicate a stagnation in net inflows for U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs, with only two of the previous five trading days reflecting a net positive flow. On Wednesday, only $87 million was recorded, dropping sharply from the previous day’s figure of $387 million, as reported by SoSoValue. Ether ETFs reported an inflow of $57 million, the least since May 21.
“The declining pace of institutional inflows indicates a loss of momentum—leading us to be cautious regarding immediate forecasts,” stated Valentin Fournier, lead research analyst at BRN, in an email correspondence.
Nevertheless, other analysts retain an optimistic viewpoint, underscoring the accelerating pace of institutional adoption. “Despite the anticipated seasonal slowdown of summer, the structural backdrop is still supportive,” reported QCP Capital. “With both BTC and ETH emission rates now lagging the growth of the global money supply, a protracted positive price movement seems imminent. New treasury buyers are absorbing the surplus.”
Over the last 24 hours, the crypto news has been mostly positive. Circle, the issuer behind the regulated USDC stablecoin, has priced its initial public offering at $31 per share, surpassing the predicted range of $24 to $26, amassing a valuation of around $1.1 billion. Meanwhile, the California Assembly recently passed the AB-1052 bill, which categorizes long-dormant crypto assets as “unclaimed property,” allowing the state to manage them.
Economic indicators, however, have been less favorable. Three disappointing U.S. economic reports, including the Federal Reserve’s Beige book details, have resulted in a drop in Treasury yields, reigniting speculation of a potential Fed rate cut.
What to Watch
Crypto Events:
- June 5, 9:30 a.m.: Shares of Circle (CRCL), the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, begin trading on the NYSE. The IPO set the stock price at $31, valuing the company at $6.9 billion.
- June 6: Sia (SC) is anticipated to activate Phase 1 of its V2 hard fork, marking its most significant upgrade to date.
- June 9, 1-5 p.m.: The U.S. SEC Crypto Task Force will host a roundtable titled “DeFi and the American Spirit.”
- June 10, 10 a.m.: A hearing will occur before the U.S. House Financial Services Committee to discuss the markup of various measures, including the crypto market structure bill, i.e., the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act.
Macro Indicators:
- June 5, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Department of Labor is set to release unemployment claims data for the week ending May 31, with expectations of 235K initial jobless claims.
- June 6: A meeting is scheduled between German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and President Donald Trump to discuss tariffs and defense among other matters.
Market Movements
- BTC: $104,909.52, up 0.25% from Wednesday (24hrs: -0.79%)
- ETH: $2,607.45, unchanged (24hrs: -1.02%)
- CoinDesk 20: 3,086.55, unchanged (24hrs: +0.81%)
- Gold Futures: $3,412.40/oz, up 1.15%
- Silver Futures: $35.76/oz, up 3.61%
Wrap-Up
BTC dominance stands at 64.16. The ongoing discussions amidst various stakeholders inject a level of unpredictability in what the next few weeks will hold for the largest digital currencies. Continued vigilance is recommended as economic data unfolds.
