Key Insights
- The likelihood of a U.S. military strike against Iran has dipped below 50% on the Polymarket platform.
- Reports highlight that Trump’s team is in discussions for a meeting with Iran’s foreign minister to seek diplomatic resolutions concerning nuclear negotiations.
Traders on Polymarket are now recalibrating their expectations regarding U.S. military intervention in Iran after news surfaced that President Donald Trump’s team is eager to engage in diplomacy. Currently, the probability of the U.S. executing a strike on Iran before June 30 is at 46%, a drastic reduction from a high of 66.9% observed overnight, based on the trading dynamics surrounding the contract titled “U.S. military action against Iran before July.”.
The adjustment reflects a report from Axios indicating a potential meeting this week between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi aimed at pursuing a diplomatic initiative connected to the nuclear deal and the Israel-Iran conflict.
Conversely, one Polymarket participant suggested, “Trump should join the fray: his troops need the experience in postpostmodern warfare,” expressing a call for military action against Iran.
Amid these developments, Israel launched airstrikes and drone strikes targeting Iranian military and nuclear sites, prompting retaliations from Tehran. Initially, Bitcoin’s price responded negatively, dropping to $102,750, largely due to a risk-averse sentiment in traditional markets, highlighted by a rise in the Japanese yen and a dip in U.S. stock values. However, Bitcoin has since rebounded, now trading at approximately $106,700. Futures contracts connected to the S&P 500 exhibited a slight decrease of 0.7%.
It is worth noting that the Trump administration has yet to provide a formal response to the Axios report. In a recent post on Truth Social, Trump reiterated his stance that Iran should not possess nuclear capabilities, calling for immediate evacuations from Tehran.
