Key Points

• Bitcoin trades above $104,000, maintaining stability amid potential geopolitical tensions.
• Analysts divided on market’s low volatility indicating strength or instability.
• Institutional investors increasingly shape market dynamics as retail participation declines, hinting at major price movements ahead.

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, summarizing key market developments during U.S. hours. Bitcoin (BTC) currently holds above $104,500 despite geopolitical unrest, only showing a modest decline of 2% over the past week according to CoinDesk market data.

Analysts are questioning whether cryptocurrency’s current calmness signifies a stable market condition or a warning sign.

Reports from CryptoQuant, Glassnode, and trading firm Flowdesk reveal low volatility, stifled price actions, and weak on-chain activity, with retail interest diminishing as institutional investors gain more influence.

CryptoQuant’s June 19 report warns that Bitcoin could revisit support levels around $92,000, or potentially decline to $81,000 if demand continues to wane. Although demand is on the rise, it remains significantly low against historical trends. ETF inflows have plunged over 60% since April, while accumulation among large investors has halved. Newer investors have divested approximately 800,000 BTC in recent months. The demand momentum indicator now shows negative 2 million BTC, marking a dramatic low.

In contrast, Glassnode proposes that the current stillness may reflect the Bitcoin network’s maturation rather than a market weakness, as high settlement volumes predominantly involve large-value transactions—reflecting usage by institutional and wealthy individuals.

Overall, analysts remain uncertain, with predictions varying widely on Bitcoin’s potential price movements.