Upcoming Analysis of the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart
The Bitcoin rainbow chart shows BTC currently trading significantly above $100,000.
However, the latest analysis from 99Bitcoins indicates that USDT’s supply is nearing its peak and the presence of leveraged shorts could lead to market volatility in either direction.
Questions arise around the reliability of notable predictive models by economist Raoul Pal, prompting discussions on whether this cycle differs from previous ones and if the anticipated alt-season may be off the table.
Rainbow Chart
Image credit: Blockchain Center.
The Bull and Bear Struggle
Bitcoin bounced back from a recent low of $98,000, effectively neutralizing bearish positions tied to geopolitical disturbances. Currently valued near $108,952, BTC fluctuates within the range of $106,000 to $108,000, with bulls targeting a resurgence toward the $110,000 mark.
Note: Notably trader James Wynn holds a 40x short position, valued at $1.49 million, centered around a critical liquidation level at $108,630. If Bitcoin surpasses this threshold, it might trigger a short squeeze impacting Wynn and similar traders.
The market may potentially reach a new all-time high (ATH) and herald the beginning of an alt-season as the summer advances.
“Altseason loading… pic.twitter.com/sYgCmHNEv7” — Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) June 28, 2025.
Moreover, the circulating supply of Tether has soared to an unprecedented level of $158 billion, complemented by BlackRock’s consistent $1.15 billion weekly Bitcoin purchases, suggesting that institutions are strategically positioning themselves.
Debate Surrounding M2-Bitcoin Correlation
Bitcoin’s ascension past six figures has reignited discussions on the predictability of these trends. Raoul Pal asserts that M2 money supply movements serve as a critical indicator for BTC’s pricing. However, Sina of 21st Capital dismisses this as ineffective.
“An epic collection of Raoul Pal’s flawed recommendations; it’s laughable that people pay him to listen to such advice.” — Sina 🗝️⚡ 21st Capital (@Sina_21st) January 15, 2025.
In a June 24 analysis, Sina criticized the ability of the model to offer reliable predictions, declaring it as imposing narratives rather than offering forecasts. The coming months will verify whether we are entering a conventional cycle of Bitcoin surges spurred by monetary expansion, interest rate reductions, and easing geopolitical tensions, or whether Sina’s skepticism holds merit.
What Lies Ahead for Bitcoin?
Confidence in traditional Bitcoin models continues to dwindle. Analysts like Sina push for a focus on core fundamentals, such as liquidity dynamics, wallet engagement, and real-time network indicators.
Get ready, as the next few weeks could determine if BTC breaks new ground or is drawn back into turbulent market conditions.
Key Insights
- An ongoing debate critiques the predictive models of economist Raoul Pal, specifically his M2-Bitcoin correlation theory.
- Market observers are keenly awaiting Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s comments next month amid persisted inflation concerns and sluggish labor statistics.
