Mainstream media has speculated that Donald Trump’s betting odds on Polymarket are being influenced for political gains.

Experts in prediction markets consulted by CoinDesk discovered minimal evidence to support these claims, asserting that any attempts to alter prices are unlikely to bear long-term effects.

The mainstream media narratives echo sentiments expressed by Trump regarding the allegedly manipulated 2020 presidential election. Conducting a political betting analysis, traders on Polymarket have observed a rise in Trump’s odds, despite polling forecasts indicating otherwise, which some say indicates potential manipulation.

Experts from the industry confirmed that a single trader is making significant bets favoring Trump while lacking any clear political intentions. Richard Pidot from American Civics Exchange stated:

"If the objective was to alter the price, you'd act in complete opposition."
Translation: If the aim was to manipulate prices, the methods employed would have been different.

Polymarket has stated that they found no indications of manipulation, while experts continue to assert the integrity of the betting platform relative to the dynamics of traditional financial markets. To clarify, liquidity discrepancies exist where one could influence Kamala Harris's odds more easily, evidenced by the current order book showing far greater sell orders for Trump than for Harris.

The current situation provides a dynamic landscape as traders exploit discrepancies across various prediction platforms to gauge the upcoming 2024 election outcomes.