Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan and the market niche he took mainstream in 2024 can take a victory lap.
Along with Donald Trump, the Republican Party, and the cryptocurrency industry, prediction markets are a clear winner of the U.S. election. The GOP's surprisingly strong showing on election night shocked those who relied solely on mainstream media for information.

Those who had keenly observed odds trends on Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, and similar platforms would know the results were within the realm of possibility.

"The markets were far and away the best forecast of the 2024 election," stated Koleman Strumpf, a Wake Forest University economics professor. "While pollsters claimed it was ‘too close to call’, markets identified Trump as the favorite."

Despite various media claims that Polymarket was manipulated by pro-Trump factions, the results proved otherwise.

Nevertheless, prediction market participants feel justified in their beliefs. Hanq Lambur, co-founder of UMA Protocol, stated, "Polymarket accurately predicted that Trump was most likely to win while traditional polls suggested the race was a toss-up."

The 2024 elections proved that prediction markets can be a more penetrating analytical tool than traditional polling.