The U.S. Republican Party appears likely to maintain control of the House of Representatives, completing a political trifecta after successfully flipping both the Senate and the White House during the 2024 election cycle.

As of the latest updates, the Associated Press has called 409 of the 435 House seats, indicating Democrats have secured 199 seats while Republicans have claimed 210. The first party to achieve 218 seats gains the majority, and reports suggest Republicans could be closing in on this target.

On the betting site Polymarket, traders are increasingly optimistic, giving Republicans at least a 51% chance to maintain control, a figure that has climbed to 98.5% as of the latest monitoring.

At this point, Republicans are ahead in at least 14 out of 27 outstanding races. For instance, in Alaska, Republican Nick Begich leads Mary Peltola by approximately 10,000 votes. In Arizona, David Schweikert, an experienced Congressman and co-founder of the Congressional Blockchain Caucus, is also ahead with a similar margin.

The dynamics shift as Greg Stanton outpaces his Republican challenger in another Arizona district, while Juan Ciscomani, backed by Fairshake, trails narrowly.

Further developments include Mariannette Miller-Meeks leading by a slim margin of 0.2% against Democrat Christina Bohannan, indicating the possibility of a recount in Iowa.

In Nebraska, Don Bacon holds a 3% advantage as votes are being tallied, and Dan Newhouse appears poised to defeat a fellow Republican in Washington State.

If the current trends persist, Republicans are positioned to maintain a majority with an estimated 224 seats, an increase over the 118th Congress's numbers. Betting forecasts reflect this confidence with an 86% likelihood for this outcome, a notable jump from 20% when polls began closing.[^1]