XRP struggled to maintain momentum above the $3.00 barrier on September 9–10, encountering significant institutional selling that wiped out early gains. After reaching a peak of $3.035, selling activity brought the asset back down to $2.94 by the end of the session.

Market Insights

• XRP faced strong resistance at $3.02 as traders consider ETF catalysts and rising exchange reserves that may restrict bullish momentum.

Background on Current Market Conditions

• The Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on September 17 is expected to result in a 25-basis-point rate cut, which could enhance liquidity for risk assets.
• Six XRP spot ETF applications are pending SEC review this October, a decision viewed as crucial for institutional participation.
• Custody balances for XRP have reached a 12-month high, highlighting concerns regarding potential selling pressure despite recent accumulation by large holders.

Price Action Summary

• XRP fluctuated within a $0.10 range (2.9%) from $2.935 to $3.035 from September 9 at 3:00 AM to September 10 at 2:00 AM.
• It hit $3.035 during early trading but was promptly rejected near $3.02 resistance. A sell-off around 2:00 PM pushed XRP from $3.018 to $2.956, with volume nearing triple the daily average.
• Prices stabilized between $2.94 and $2.96, reflecting reduced trading activity averaging 650k tokens per minute.

Technical Analysis

• Resistance: The $3.02–$3.04 range restricted progress, with multiple high-volume rejections.
• Support: The $2.94 level was tested and maintained, suggesting accumulation from institutional players.
• Momentum Indicators: The RSI indicates early bullish divergence, albeit tempered by high exchange reserves.
• Market Structure: The failure to break out indicates a likelihood of continued consolidation between $2.94 and $3.00, unless trading volumes increase.

Key Considerations for Traders

• Observing whether XRP can close above $2.95 for momentum towards a $3.02 breakout.
• Monitoring exchange custody balances at record peaks to determine if inflows transform into sustained selling pressure.
• The implications of the SEC’s October ETF rulings which could be a structural catalyst for the market.
• The Fed’s September 17 rate decision and its projected impact on liquidity in the dollar market.
• The influence of recent whale inflows totaling 340 million tokens and their effect on available distribution.