A crypto executive stated that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is largely motivated by emotional responses from its users and will probably continue to manifest in some capacity. Saad Ahmed, the head of APAC at Gemini, commented in an interview with Cointelegraph during the Token2049 event in Singapore that while the cycle might not repeat exactly as before, the fundamental principle remains relevant.

“When it comes to the four-year cycle, the reality is that it’s very likely that we’ll continue to see some form of a cycle,” Ahmed expressed.

His insights indicate that the market experiences an increase in enthusiasm followed by a downturn, leading to eventual stabilization.

Saad Ahmed discussed market cycles at Token2049 in Singapore. Source: Cointelegraph

However, Ahmed noted that the increase in institutional participation in cryptocurrency could help reduce market fluctuations. “The cycle is ultimately influenced by human emotions, making it possible that volatility could decrease, yet the cycle itself will persist,” he explained.

The ongoing discourse surrounding the validity of the four-year cycle within Bitcoin has garnered attention lately. Analytics firm Glassnode previously indicated that Bitcoin’s latest price movements might still reflect its historical four-year reduction cycle.

October Could Indicate Bitcoin’s Cycle Peak if Trends Hold

If history is any indication, the upcoming month may coincide with Bitcoin’s cycle peak, as suggested by crypto analyst Rekt Capital. He proposed that in July, should the market align with 2020’s patterns, a peak may occur in October, approximately 550 days following the April 2024 halving. “We have a very small sliver of time and price expansion left,” Rekt stated.

As of October 1, Bitcoin’s price hit $123,850, reflecting an 11.5% boost over the previous week and drawing near to its all-time peak of $124,100 recorded on August 14, according to CoinMarketCap.

Bitwise’s Matt Hougan indicated skepticism about the price aligning with past cycles. “I bet 2026 is an up year,” he said on July 26, adding that he anticipates a positive trend over the coming years. This day marks the beginning of the fourth quarter, which historically has been Bitcoin’s most robust period since 2013, averaging returns of 79.39%, per CoinGlass.