Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle May Persist, Says Gemini Executive
A crypto executive asserts that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, influenced by human emotions, is likely to continue in some adjusted form.
The four-year cycle of Bitcoin is generally influenced by human emotions and is anticipated to endure in some modified manner, as per a statement from a crypto industry executive. Saad Ahmed, the head of Gemini for the APAC region, remarked, during an interview at Token2049 held in Singapore, “I think when it comes to the four-year cycle, the reality is that it’s very likely that we’ll continue to see some form of a cycle.” He noted that such cycles emerge when people become overly excited, leading to market corrections followed by a return to equilibrium.
Saad Ahmed at Token2049
Saad Ahmed spoke to Cointelegraph at Token2049 in Singapore. Source: Cointelegraph
Ahmed suggested that increasing engagement from institutional investors in the crypto space might stabilize some of the industry’s volatility. He elaborated that, while fluctuations may continue, cycles would persist due to their inherent emotional driving force. The cryptocurrency community has recently debated the relevance of these cycles in relation to Bitcoin performance.
According to Glassnode, an analytics firm, Bitcoin’s recent fluctuations may still align with its historical four-year halving cycles.
October Could Signal Bitcoin’s Cycle High
However, crypto analyst Rekt Capital has indicated that the apex of Bitcoin’s cycle might be nearing in October, based upon historical trends. He observed that if the cycle replicates previous years, a market peak could materialize around 550 days after the anticipated halving in April 2024.
“We have a very small sliver of time and price expansion left,” Rekt stated, while mentioning October 1 marks the beginning of Q4, a period in which Bitcoin has historically performed strongly since 2013, averaging a return of 79.39%, according to CoinGlass. Moreover, Bitcoin surged by 11.5% in the last week, nearing its previous all-time high set on August 14.
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, articulated his expectations that Bitcoin’s price path may not follow the historical cycle. He optimistically stated that 2026 is projected to be an upward year for the cryptocurrency market.
Related: Bitcoin chases new highs as crypto market cap crosses $4.21T
