Bitcoin (BTC) Kicks Off Q4 2025 with an Optimistic Bullish Outlook: Insights from CryptoQuant
On-chain data indicates that Bitcoin’s upcoming quarter might mirror previous bullish phases, driven by significant spot demand and whale activity.
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin (BTC) is projected to start the fourth quarter of 2025 under conditions akin to those seen last year. A recent report from CryptoQuant indicates that its Bull Score Index has remained in the 40 to 50 range, akin to the end of Q3 2024.
This range is significant, as values surpassing 50 suggest a transition into bullish territory. When BTC crossed this threshold in October 2024, it surged from $70,000 to $100,000.
Growing Buying Pressure
As the new quarter unfolds, several indicators reveal a supportive landscape. The report highlights increasing demand for Bitcoin, consistent stablecoin liquidity, and reduced unrealized gains among market participants, all of which could soften selling pressure.
A notable factor is spot demand, which has escalated since July, now averaging over 62,000 BTC monthly. This surge is deemed essential for potential rallies, reminiscent of movements seen in late 2020, 2021, and 2024.
Additionally, large wallets are contributing to the bullish trend, with whale holdings increasing annually by 331,000 BTC, a jump from 255,000 during Q4 2024 and 238,000 at the start of Q4 2020. This contrasts sharply with 2021, when whale balances declined by approximately 197,000 BTC. Current trends suggest that accumulation remains robust and far from contraction.
Alongside whale dynamics, institutional demand from U.S.-based ETFs is also expected to be influential in the coming months. Last year, ETFs increased their holdings by 213,000 coins, marking a 71% rise in the same quarter.
Important Levels to Monitor
The on-chain report contends that inflows comparable to or more significant than previous cycles could emerge if conditions align in 2025. Such movements would augment the already strong demand base among whales and in the spot markets.
Despite this favorable backdrop, Bitcoin has yet to trigger a definitive breakout. CryptoQuant emphasizes monitoring the Trader’s On-chain Realized Price, currently situated near $116,000. Surpassing this level could signal a return to the “BULL” phase of the Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator, potentially positioning Bitcoin into a range of $160,000 to $200,000 if momentum intensifies.
Tags: Bitcoin, Bitcoin (BTC) Price
