Warren Buffett's Affection for the S&P 500 Faces an 88% Decline Compared to Bitcoin

While billionaire hedge fund manager Warren Buffett has long advocated for investing in the S&P 500, data shows that since 2020, the index has underperformed Bitcoin by approximately 88%.

In an October 5 X post, Phil Rosen, co-founder of the stock market data newsletter Opening Bell Daily, highlighted that the S&P 500 has surged 106% in USD value since 2020 but has “collapsed” significantly in terms of BTC, which has garnered positive reactions from Bitcoin analysts.

The S&P 500 has had an 88% drop in nominal BTC value since 2020. Source: Phil Rosen
The S&P 500 has had an 88% drop in nominal BTC value since 2020.
The S&P 500 is a stock market index that tracks the performance of 500 leading companies on stock exchanges in the United States. Since its inception in 1957, it has delivered an annual inflation-adjusted return of about 6.68%, usually higher than the average inflation rate in the US.

This might explain why the renowned American entrepreneur Warren Buffett has frequently recommended the S&P 500 as a prime option for the average investor, endorsing a 90/10 investment strategy — allocating 90% of a portfolio to the S&P 500 and 10% to short-term US Treasury bonds.

S&P 500 Breaks Records, But So Does Bitcoin

The S&P 500 has continued to set new records in 2025, currently standing at $6,715.79 with a rise of 14.43% since the year’s start.
Bitcoin, conversely, has increased by 32% this year, achieving a new high of $125,000 for the first time ever on Saturday.

In simpler terms, based on OfficialData.Org, a $100 investment in the S&P 500 at the beginning of 2020 would be around $209.85 by July 2025. In contrast, the same $100 investment in Bitcoin would balloon to $1,473.87.
Increase on a $100 S&P 500 investment since 2020. Source: OfficialData.Org
Increase on a $100 S&P 500 investment since 2020. Source: OfficialData.Org

Comparing Bitcoin and S&P 500

However, it’s important to note that drawing a comparison between the two investments may not be entirely just.
The S&P 500 serves as a broad benchmark for the US stock market, tracking the performance of the 500 largest publicly traded companies, presenting itself as a lower risk and reward investment.
In contrast, Bitcoin stands alone as a digital asset with a distinct narrative primarily focused on scarcity, decentralization, and deflation — its adoption has surged as investors seek new avenues for value growth or preservation.
Bitcoin’s relatively recent emergence brings with it increased daily volatility, and it currently holds a market capitalization of $2.47 trillion, in contrast to the S&P 500’s massive $56.7 trillion.