According to simulations based on data from the last decade, Bitcoin currently has a 50% probability of exceeding $140,000 this month, as highlighted by economist Timothy Peterson. He mentioned, “There is a 50% chance Bitcoin finishes the month above $140k,” and noted, “But there is a 43% chance Bitcoin finishes below $136k.”

Bitcoin (BTC) would need to increase approximately 14.7% from its present value of $122,032, down from its recent all-time high of $126,200 registered on Monday, based on CoinMarketCap data.

Peterson stated that “half of Bitcoin’s October gains may have already materialized,” utilizing Bitcoin’s daily price data from 2015 in the simulation to showcase potential market behavior over time.

Prediction “not human emotion or biased opinion”

He emphasized that the prediction arises from “hundreds of simulations based purely on real data, not human emotion or biased opinion.” Peterson added, “Every projection adheres to a similar logic, price fluctuations that align with Bitcoin’s actual historical, repetitive volatility and rhythm.”

Bitcoin commenced October at approximately $116,500, with a rise to $140,000 indicating a 20.17% monthly increase, closely in line with historical averages.

Since 2013, October has been Bitcoin’s second-best-performing month with average gains of 20.75%, according to CoinGlass.

Bitcoin Performance Since 2013, November has been Bitcoin’s top-performing month, with an average gain of 46.02% according to CoinGlass.

Peterson further stated that the forecast evades the “bias and noise” affecting short-term market sentiment. “The outcome is a clear, probability-based perspective on likely movements in Bitcoin’s value,” he said.

Despite historical trends, there have been numerous occasions where Bitcoin diverged from market expectations, disregarding past patterns despite solid data backing.

Broader market remains confident in Bitcoin

Additional cryptocurrency analysts share optimistic views for Bitcoin following its peak earlier this week. Crypto analyst Jelle stated in an X post, “It’s certainly over for the bears. Push it higher.”

Similarly, Matthew Hyland remarked that “the pressure is building,” also via X.

Peterson reiterated, though, that “markets are not random in the short term.” He explained that they operate cyclically based on liquidity, sentiment, and positioning, asserting the significance of October due to institutional capital cycle transformations, marking the conclusion of Q3 portfolio rebalancing and initiating year-end assessment processes.