Record Surge: JPMorgan's Bitcoin Sentiment Hits All-Time High Amid Market Speculation
A wave of speculative trading in cryptocurrencies has led to a dramatic rise in Bitcoin's retail sentiment score, indicating potential market volatility.
Bitcoin and associated cryptocurrency assets have experienced a significant rally following Donald Trump's U.S. presidential election win on November 5. For those looking to invest in cryptocurrencies, awareness of potential market fluctuations is crucial as analyses from JPMorgan indicate an unusual market frenzy.
As BTC surged past the $93,000 threshold last week, and there was a notable influx into U.S.-listed spot ETFs and crypto stocks, JPMorgan's retail sentiment score reached an all-time high of 4. This metric assesses retail investors' sentiment towards cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, based on movements within its product family, including spot ETFs.
"Within the ETF space, demand for Bitcoin ETFs was particularly strong following the election results. The sentiment score for the Bitcoin product family soared to a multi-sigma high," stated JPMorgan's equity research team in a note to clients.
A Z-score above 3.4 signifies a strong demand, diverging significantly from the average.
Retail sentiment score for Bitcoin family has surged to a historical peak. (JPMorgan)
Meanwhile, the options market for MicroStrategy (MSTR) shares has shown an unprecedented bullish sentiment, further indicating near-saturation trading often seen during market peaks.
The 25-delta put-call skew has drastically declined to -26.7% on Wednesday, showing that call options to exploit price rallies traded at a notably higher premium than those offering downside protections. As of Friday, this skew slightly recovered to -11.8% yet still indicated a preference for upside bets. Significantly, BTC calls have consistently been more expensive than puts, though the margin is now narrower compared to MSTR.
"The bullish sentiment recorded by MSTR is exceptionally high, making a significant pullback likely unless Bitcoin continues its upward trajectory disproportionately. Currently, it seems to be slightly cooling off from recent highs," commented the pseudonymous analyst Markets&Mayhem.
Analysts from TheMarketEar noted the skew's implications, describing it as exhibiting extreme upside fear.
Therefore, while BTC and other crypto-interlinked assets might be regarded as solid long-term investments, surging retail investor sentiment presents unpredictable elements, potentially leading to notable market reversals.